Ernest Guevarra

Founding Member


I have more than 15 years of professional experience in community and public health in humanitarian crises and developing country-settings, including as a community health worker, medical doctor, and recently as specialised expert and head of metrics, analytics and technology for Valid International. I have expertise in spatial epidemiology, geo-statistics, and statistical programming using R. In my recent role as Head of Measures for Valid International, I led the design, development and implementation of innovative surveys and assessments on health and nutrition and bespoke analytical approaches that leverage the advantages of Bayesian statistics and resampling techniques.

I am a founding member of Katilingban, a collective of public health and nutrition experts and practitioners. I am currently part of the Oxford COVID-19 Modelling Consortium (CoMo Consortium) Philippines team or CoMo-PH along with two other public health practitioners from the Philippines. We aim to test and compare the CoMo Consortium model with existing local models that have previously been developed.


  • Public Health and Nutrition
  • Spatial Epidemiology
  • R


  • Master of Public Health, 2005

    Harvard School of Public Health

  • Certificate in Humanitarian Studies, 2005

    Harvard School of Public Health

  • Doctor of Medicine, 2001

    University of the Philippines

  • BSc in Basic Medical Sciences, 1998

    University of the Philippines



Founding Member


Jul 2020 – Present

Leads the development and implementation of the strategic direction of the collective

Leads the analytics and software development services unit of the collective


Teaching Fellow

MSc in International Health and Tropical Medicine, University of Oxford

Jul 2020 – Present Oxford
Lectures postgraduate students on topics related to famines, development and humanitarian interventions for health, and evaluation methods for development and health

Member and Contributor

Oxford COVID-19 Modelling Consortium Philippines Team

Jul 2020 – Present Oxford

Provides technical guidance and capacity building to the Philippines country team in adapting the CoMo Consortium model to the Philippine context

Develops analytical tools in R language for statistical computing to support the country team’s modelling efforts


Head of Measures

Valid International Ltd

Apr 2017 – Jun 2020 Oxford, United Kingdom

Led design, development and implementation of innovative approaches, techniques and products for surveys and assessments focusing on health and nutrition for purposes of programme monitoring and evaluation, impact assessment, programme coverage and access or any other metric/indicator estimation.

Led the design and development of bespoke analytical techniques and the accompanying programming scripts and workflows for estimating various metrics/indicators, specifically leveraging Bayesian statistics, resampling approaches and Monte Carlo methods.

Trained and supervised a team of 5 survey technicians and data analysts.


Surveys and Assessments Specialist

Valid International Ltd

Jan 2015 – Mar 2017 Oxford, United Kingdom

Led Valid International’s Community-based Management of Acute Malnutrition (CMAM) coverage assessment team and has conducted coverage surveys in Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia, Zambia, Nigeria, Niger, India and Ghana.

Pioneered the design and development of specially designed methods to assess CMAM coverage such as Semi-Quantitative Evaluation of Access and Coverage (SQUEAC) and Simplified Lot Quality Assurance Sampling Evaluation of Access and Coverage (SLEAC).

Co-developed a spatial sampling technique called Simple Spatial Sampling Method (S3M) for use in large-scale multi-indicator surveys that reports and maps indicator results at high spatial resolution at a national or regional level.

Co-developed a low-cost, rapid assessment method for assessing nutritional status of children, women and elderly.


Technical Advisor

Valid International Ltd

Jun 2010 – Dec 2014 Oxford, United Kingdom

Provided technical support and evaluation of nutrition programmes for the treatment of severe and moderate acute malnutrition.

Worked on all areas related to the design and implementation of CMAM programmes, including: identification of barriers to health services; establishment of outpatient clinics in local health centres; case-finding; advice on logistics of community outreach programmes; advice on integration of systems with local, regional and national ministry of health programmes; training programmes for partner NGOs and local ministry of health medical and logistics staff; support and evaluation of programme systems including community outreach, case-finding, programme admission, triage and referral, discharge, case follow up and patient recording systems; establishment of stabilisation centres within hospitals; and evaluation of nutrition programmes at all stages.


Impact evaluation of the World Food Programme's moderate acute malnutrition treatment and prevention programmes in Sudan

This impact evaluation assessed the effectiveness of the World Food Programmes’s (WFP) ongoing food-based prevention of moderate …

Household Coverage of Fortified Staple Food Commodities in Rajasthan, India

A spatially representative statewide survey was conducted in Rajasthan, India to assess household coverage of atta wheat flour, edible …

Assessing Program Coverage of Two Approaches to Distributing a Complementary Feeding Supplement to Infants and Young Children in Ghana

The work reported here assesses the coverage achieved by two sales-based approaches to distributing a complementary food supplement …

Assessing Coverage of Targeted and Large-scale Fortification Programs: Development of a Fortification Assessment Coverage Tool (FACT)

To develop and operationalize a survey tool that can be used by nutrition programmers to assess and classify coverage and consumption …

A single coverage estimator for use in SQUEAC, SLEAC, and other CMAM coverage assessments

A new single coverage estimator is proposed that is a measure of overall programme performance. It can be used with existing survey …

Recent Posts

A Simple Approach to Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Community-Based Management of Acute Malnutrition (CMAM) Programs

This handbook covers the types of outcomes used in CEA analyses, the creation of counterfactuals to model the absence of an …

oxcgrt: An Interface to the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker API

Facilitating access to the OxCGRT data in R

covidphdata: An Interface to the Philippines Department of Health COVID-19 Data Drop

An R package providing a coherent, robust and performant API to the Philippines COVID-19 data

Do not go gentle into that good night

There can be no keener revelation of a society’s soul than the way in which it treats its children. - Nelson Mandela

We are Katilingban

We are a collective of multi-disciplinary experts and practitioners of public health and nutrition.

Recent & Upcoming Talks

Overview of Evaluation Methods

Overview of Evaluation Methods

Assessing coverage of community-based management of acute malnutrition

Assessing coverage of community-based management of acute malnutrition